The Capacity
Planning Practice

Version 7.9

What changed

The paper is a working draft. Its two claims are meant to last; its method, mechanisms and numbers are expected to change as people use them.

What changed in this version

For readers who saw an earlier draft, these are the main changes since version 6.

Item What happened Why
Adjacent fields and new evidence (v7.9) Telephone engineering added to the discipline's lineage. New evidence from supply chains, power grids, risk management and AI platforms. It covers why not to split a shortage pro rata, why to name shared drivers, and measured AI demand. One labeled exploration on AI demand declared as a policy. New sources are listed as [A1]–[A9] until the next renumbering. To test the method against fields that solved neighbouring problems first
Credit, re-checked (v7.8) More of the frame is credited to Hixson and Guliani: blow-up factors as an early α, the fast lane, one plan for several products' upside, and the limits small companies face. The 2026 SRE chapter's link to error budgets is quoted again, and its stockout resiliency is named. Several reference links were repaired. So a reader can tell which parts are the sources' and which are this paper's.
Prior art, re-checked (v7.7) The measuring loop's eight steps are labeled as this paper's arrangement of the 2026 SRE chapter's advice. A few readings of the chapter were softened, and Hixson and Guliani's "costs" are read as an early form of the coefficient Accuracy and fair credit
Softer where experts push back (v7.7) Coefficients as a straight-line reading near today's load; k set per cell, with uneven failover; the marginal job pulls the next buy earlier; buffers multiply only if latency must hold during a failure Precision
Layers An abstract, an executive summary and a one-page version now come before the deep dive Each reader can stop at the depth they need
Two claims and a method The paper now states two claims, that a coefficient is an agreement and that approval is not allocation, and offers one method To say plainly what it argues and what it offers
The commit-point method (Section 8) New: eight steps for one launch, what each side owes the other, and a walk-through To give planners something to try, not only an argument
Supply (Sections 6.2 and 6.7) Section 6.2 rewritten around public values; Section 6.7, on supply's own step changes, expanded Supply runs on its own clock, with its own lead times and contracts
Appendices A and B New: a worksheet with a full walk-through, and the public record on supply Each can be printed or handed over on its own
Figures Added throughout: clocks, scenes, method cards, flowcharts, swimlanes and charts of public values; 60 in all So the figures and captions carry the argument on their own
Corrections Hixson and Guliani's five years is quoted in full, as their example, not a maximum; the AEP Ohio tariff figures and the Section 9.1 quote are corrected Accuracy
Tests on the mechanisms (Section 9.2) Each test moved from Section 9.4 to the mechanism it belongs to, under You'll know it's working when… So each mechanism carries its own check
Mechanism 3 Renamed the coefficient register and versioned rate card It's the practice that keeps the first claim true, not a second statement of it
Sentences Most long sentences split into shorter ones; a few that hold quotes are left whole Easier to read
The 2026 SRE chapter Read in full; credited in Sections 1, 3, 5.2, 5.4, 6, 7, 8.5, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 13, the Terms and Appendix B.5 wherever it got there first, and every "may cover" resolved Its authors include Hixson, and much of this paper's ground is theirs first
New public sources Added on pooling, stranding, quota versus capacity, phased supply, the Meet case and recent operator statements; lineage of the discipline in Section 3 Each supports a claim already made, or softens one
Eight explorations Labeled ideas from setting the paper beside the SRE chapter (Sections 5.2, 6.3, 6.6, 6.7, 9.3, 10.2, 12 and 13) Offered as ways to think, not findings
The measuring loop (Section 5.2, Figure 10) The SRE chapter's business-driver loop is now laid out step by step and credited in full; the paper adds the price reading and a labeled idea that the chapter's two alerts route each term to its owner. A second labeled idea makes re-baselining a routine step that scores the gap by owner. Sections 5.4 and 7 each gain one line The paper's loop showed only the governance half
The handshake (Section 10, Figure 41) Section 10 opens with capital, supply and demand as a handshake the planner brokers, and what the planner trades in; Figure 41 becomes the triangle, with the three seams on its edges The people half lacked one frame
People practice (Sections 6.1, 6.4, 9.1, 9.3, 10.1, 10.2, 10.4, 12 and 14) Short, general notes on where the right to refuse comes from, talking before the intake, no surprises in the room, shocks, finance's distrust, translation, freezes, onboarding, work between charters, re-baselining, brokering and re-shaping Practice the mechanisms depend on, written as practice, not as a story

Version history

A reader's summary of each version.

Version 7.9
10 October 2026
Tested against fields that solved neighbouring problems first. Telephone engineering joins the lineage. New evidence: why not to split a shortage pro rata, why to name shared drivers rather than trust a low correlation, how grid queues handled speculative requests, and measured AI demand. One labeled exploration: some AI demand is better declared as a policy than a forecast. New sources are listed as A1 to A9. Later the same day, several reference links were made sturdier.
Version 7.8
10 October 2026
Credit re-checked against both sources. More of the frame is credited to Hixson and Guliani: blow-up factors as an early form of the coefficient, the fast lane, one plan for several products' upside, and the limits small companies face. The 2026 SRE chapter's link to error budgets is quoted again, and its stockout resiliency is named. Several reference links repaired.
Version 7.7
9 October 2026
Prior art re-checked. Section 5.2's measuring loop is labeled as this paper's arrangement of the 2026 SRE chapter's advice, and a few readings of the chapter are softened. Hixson and Guliani's “costs” are read as an early form of the coefficient, and Figure 6 is updated to match. Several points are made more precise where practitioners would push back: coefficients as a straight-line reading near today's load, redundancy set per cell with uneven failover, the next purchase pulled earlier by a marginal job, and buffers that multiply only if latency must hold during a failure.
Version 7.6
7 October 2026
Section 10 now opens with the handshake: capital, supply and demand, with the planner brokering it, and what the planner trades in. Figure 41 is redrawn as that triangle, with the three seams on its edges. Section 5.2 lays out the 2026 SRE chapter's measuring loop step by step, credited in full, and adds the price reading; Figure 10 is redrawn as two rings. Short notes on people practice are added across Sections 6, 9, 10, 12 and 14, with re-baselining as a routine step.
Version 7.5
7 October 2026
The 2026 SRE capacity planning chapter, read in full, is credited wherever it got there first. Nineteen new public sources, including the discipline's lineage in Section 3. Eight labeled explorations, offered as ways to think rather than findings. Two new figures: a pooled launch reserve (Figure 28) and the Meet case on two clocks (Figure 47). References renumbered by first appearance.
Version 7.4
7 October 2026
Most long sentences split into shorter ones. Each test in Section 9.4 moved onto the mechanism it checks, under “You'll know it's working when…”. Mechanism 3 renamed the coefficient register and versioned rate card. A version line, a note on what is meant to last, and a “What changed” table added to the front matter.
Version 7.3
7 October 2026
A new figure for the channel to challenge coefficients (Section 10.4). Earlier hedges on the method's status. With this version the figures and captions, read alone, carry every main point of the paper.
Version 7.2
7 October 2026
Figures carry the argument: flowcharts, swimlanes, a decision tree, a matrix, cycles and charts of public values. Each appendix rebuilt to stand on its own. The reference list renumbered by first appearance.
Version 7.1
6 October 2026
The visual program: one visual language for every figure, with errors in older figures corrected.
Version 7.0
6 October 2026
The layered format: abstract, executive summary, one page and deep dive. Two claims and a method stated plainly. New Section 8, the commit-point method. The supply side rewritten around public values. New Appendix A (a worksheet with a walk-through) and Appendix B (the public record on supply).
Version 6
5 October 2026
Rewritten in a practitioner's voice. Each section opens with something a planner has seen, then the mechanism, then the principle, with an “In short” line at the top. One picture per idea. Credit to Hixson and Guliani's 2015 article checked against the source and widened.
Version 5
5 October 2026
Step-change demand and supply merged in as an extension of the second claim: approval is not allocation in time, as well as in shape and place.