Appendix B. What the public record says about supply

What this is. Public values for how long supply takes and how it is contracted: lead times by layer, waits for power, contract terms and capacity reported by firmness. Each value is dated and comes from its source's own context.

Who it's for. Planners, supply and finance teams checking their own numbers.

How to use it. Test your numbers against these, don't replace them. A value here describes one source's situation at one date. The charts plot only values the sources state. Ranges stay ranges. "More than" stays open; "up to" is a cap at the stated maximum, never a bar from zero; an example stays a single point. Values from different sources are never combined or averaged. Where nothing is published, the appendix says so (B.5), and your own value there is best stated as plainly hypothetical, in the "for example, if…" form. Sections 6.2, 6.4 and 6.7 of the paper use these values.

Figure B.1 keys the marks the charts use.

Terms. One line each, in the paper's words.

• Lead time: how long a supply layer takes from order to arrival. A cautious lead time sits near the slow end of what's been seen.
• Supply layer: one kind of supply with its own lead time: land, power and buildings; network; machines and parts; turn-up; placement.
• Turn-up: installing and testing delivered machines so they can go live.
• Grid connection for a large load, versus interconnection of new generation: a large new load, such as a data center, connects through the utility's own process. New generation and storage join the grid through a separate interconnection queue. Their waits are different measures.
• Power transformer, generator step-up transformer, switchgear: three kinds of large electrical gear, named as their source names them [61].
• Take-or-pay: a commitment owed whether the demand behind it arrives or not.
• Non-cancellable order: an order that can't be walked away from once placed.
• Cancel window: the last date you can still walk away from an order cheaply. Once it closes, the forecast behind the order is a liability.
• Minimum billing demand: a tariff's floor on the bill, set as a share of contract capacity.
• Electric service agreement; construction and engineering letters of authorization: the tiers under which Dominion Energy reports its data-center contract capacity, by firmness, in its own order [92]. By its account, an engineering letter pays for the utility's engineering studies and doesn't oblige the customer to proceed. A construction letter commits the customer to repay the utility's investment, and the utility reserves capacity for it. The electric service agreement is the legal document that sets the contracted capacity, and service needs one [92].
• PJM: the regional grid operator to which Dominion Energy submitted the documentation cited in B.4 [92].
• Primary data center markets: the established markets JLL's outlook groups as primary; its wait figure covers those markets, not every location [60].
• Residual value guarantee: a lessee's promise to make up any shortfall if the leased asset is worth less than an agreed amount at the end of the lease.
• Contracted versus active power: power an operator has signed for, against power it reports as active. The paper asks each power figure to say which power it means: contracted, provisioned or drawn.
• Bridge: a stopgap for demand that supply can't meet in time. For power, it means temporary on-site generation.
• Firmness: how far supply has moved toward use. Supply firms up in stages of its own: planned, contracted, under construction, delivered, live.

Figure B.2 plots the table, each value as its source states it; weeks convert at 7 days and months at 30.4.

Power's numbers need care. For new generation, the median wait from interconnection request to signed agreement was "well over 3 years in 2025" [112], but a large new load goes through the utility's own process. For new loads, one transmission owner cited by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory expects studies to take "6 to 18 months," and any construction requiring a line extension "at least 18 months and potentially as long as 60 months"; the same report notes "limited publicly available information on large load interconnection timelines" [65]. Power can be bridged, too: JLL expects natural gas to play a role "both for temporary bridge power and increasingly for permanent on-site power generation" [60]. Figure B.3 keeps the three measures apart.

The accelerator vendor in B.1 reports having "paid premiums, provided deposits, and entered into long-term supply agreements and capacity commitments," and placing "non-cancellable and non-returnable purchase orders" ahead of its historical lead times [64]. Microsoft, for example, signed a 20-year power purchase agreement tied to restarting a nuclear unit expected online in 2028 when the agreement was announced [113]. AEP Ohio's data center tariff (for loads of 25 MW or more) sets a load ramp of up to four years. In it, the contract capacity in effect steps through no less than 50, 65, 80 and 90% of the full contract capacity in years one to four. Separately, its minimum billing demand cannot exceed 85% of contract capacity, a cap the largest loads reach. The initial term is the ramp plus eight years; after the fifth post-ramp year, a customer may leave by paying "minimum charges for 36 months after notice of termination" [114].

Leases run long, too. Microsoft calls its data center leases "very long-lived assets," at "15 to 20 years," while for short-lived chips "the lifetimes of these and the lifetimes of the contracts are very similar" [72]. Meta leases one campus, Hyperion, on "a four-year initial term with options to extend," backed by a residual value guarantee for the first 16 years [75].

The structure runs on to customers: CoreWeave sells capacity "on a take-or-pay basis" under contracts averaging "approximately five years," and buys from its own suppliers "according to stated lead times" [68]. Oracle states the mismatch risk plainly: if it overestimates demand it "could be locked into multi-year commitments for excess data center space," and its long-term data center leases "typically do not align with the duration and pricing of customer contracts" [69]. Figure B.4 lines up the commitment lengths, and the tariff's load ramp on a scale of its own.

Dominion Energy reports the capacity under its data-center contracts by firmness. It has 9.8 GW under electric service agreements and 7.1 GW under construction letters of authorization. Another 30.1 GW sits under engineering letters of authorization, which it labels "potential future load" [92]. On the operator side, CoreWeave reported about 3.1 GW of contracted power at the end of 2025, against more than 850 MW active [68]. Figure B.5 draws the two sources side by side, each on its own scale.

In the sources read for the paper, these have no public value:

• Purchase order to dock for machines: no published time found.
• Turn-up: no published duration found. For your own, use a plainly hypothetical value, in the "for example, if…" form.
• Hardware contract terms of the cancel-schedule kind (what you owe if you cancel, by date): none found.
• Waits for power for large new loads: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory notes "limited publicly available information on large load interconnection timelines" [65].

The capacity planning chapter of the second edition of Site Reliability Engineering (September 2026) [7] doesn't publish these either. It does name the constraints behind them: power grids, specialized hardware lead times and labor shortages put "a structural ceiling on construction speed" [7].